«this Oedipal
military-industrial
complex
this Aesopian
language
boiled
in mayonnaise»
Evgeny Bunimovich, «I started to forget a lot», 1991
According to Rosstat, by October 28, food inflation in Russia reached 9%. Since the beginning of the year, butter has increased in price by 25.7%, potatoes by 54.7%, sour cream by 12.7%, milk by 12.4%, lamb by 21.6%, beef by 10.5%, bread by 11.4%, and apples by almost 12%. Critics predict that by the end of the year, eggs will rise in price again by 10–20%.
President Putin claims that sanctions are among the reasons for the economic problems, although it was previously believed that they were beneficial for the Russian economic system, which would finally become fully sovereign, import-substituted, and self-sufficient. So far, all the sovereignty has resulted in the youth at Khabarovsk school No. 80 studying Juche ideas, as well as an increase in the import of North Korean military personnel. Juche ideas, despite their madness, which we seem to have enough of, are not entirely traditionally Russian, as one might notice. And our cars are not entirely domestic from the turn to the east, mostly Chinese.
Concerned about the situation, Deputy Prime Minister Patrushev Jr. instructed to restore stability in the food market within two weeks. One does not need to be a prophet in one's own country to assume: we are talking about administrative price regulation. Which, according to the iron laws of the market, will lead to a shortage of certain goods, and even the import of Turkish butter (New Zealand butter is no longer particularly importable, the Maori have become unfriendly towards Russian people, and they used to feed the entire USSR with meat) will not save, rather, it will only further push up prices.
Did you want to return to the Soviet Union? The goals are almost achieved, although more work is needed. Unlike the situation when, according to a Soviet folk ditty, «we only see eggs in the bath between Uncle Vanya's legs», this product is still on the shelves — the market economy is resisting the inhuman efforts of the country's leadership to eradicate it and still feeds the population. Those damned wild nineties — one has to recall another Soviet joke: «What came first, the egg or the chicken? — Everything was there before, both eggs and chickens». Because prices were not regulated. If they are regulated — either inflation will jump even higher after the cessation of administrative measures, or a shortage, at least partial, will occur. And one can live to see a bizarre combination of stagnation, inflation, and product shortages, but if the market is not killed, such a cocktail can be avoided even under developed Putinism.
Putinomics — a rather sophisticated sovereign and spiritually-moral invention. Initially, it lived and parasitized on two know-hows — one Brezhnev-Kosygin, the other Yeltsin-Gaidar. Putin inherited from those same wild years a market economy not built by him, a stabilized financial system, and low inflation, the beginning of a recovery economic growth, and as a bonus, suddenly soaring energy prices. According to the Brezhnev model, oil and gas were sold for petrodollars, according to the Gaidar model — they enjoyed all the low-hanging fruits of the sprouted and blossomed market economic system. The movement from an authoritarian to a semi-totalitarian system with active state intervention in the economy, which became especially noticeable and costly after Crimea in 2014, plunged Putinomics into stagnation and ensured a colossal failure in the real incomes of citizens. However, restructured for military purposes and on taxpayers' money, the industry by 2023–2024 gave a powerful boost to the production of «finished metal products», the growth of population incomes (primarily due to the vertical take-off of salaries), and the filling of jobs.
In the distorted structure of the economy, an unprecedented shortage arose — of labor. And a quite understandable and familiar shortage — of the budget. If a lot of budget money is spent — there will be overheating of the economy and inflation. If a lot of taxpayers' money is squandered on the unproductive sphere — «defense and security» and add expenses to secret articles, the share of which reaches almost a third of budget expenditures, inevitably a shortage will form in the sectors of human capital — healthcare and education. In healthcare, important medicines for serious diseases disappear, and sometimes even anesthesia in hospitals, drug prices rise, and in education, representatives of childhood and youth begin weaving camouflage nets. Very productive use of time.
Putinomics in its new militarized version formally gives economic growth, which, if there is no «special operation», will begin to fade (therefore, the Kremlin's interest is also economic — to continue what was started). Population incomes are also growing. But salaries will inevitably be devalued by high inflation. The uneven income structure will sooner or later lead to an aggravation of income and property inequality: in the conditions of mature Putinomics, one part of the population is able to buy all the places in all hotels for the New Year holidays at wild prices already in October, and the other — in sour-milk contemplation stands in front of counters with eggs, butter, milk, sour cream, asking the Hamletian question: «To take or not to take?»
But what to do? The existential «victory» over the West requires sacrifices.
But how to live after the «victory»? Yes, yes, Russia is not isolated, but the East is a delicate matter and still low-income, and relations with the West can only be restored after the retirement of one person, and we know him. A kind of «Oedipal military-industrial complex» arises in the economy — normalization of the situation will lead to its «killing»: there will be no demand for tanks, guns, and shells, the country will fall into the same trap as in the early nineties. Who needs so much iron when the population demands butter.
This is just as much an iron law of economics: either you have guns instead of butter, or butter instead of guns. Walking the middle path between a butter churn and just a slaughterhouse is almost impossible.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank fiercely raises the rate in vain attempts to stop inflation, Rosstat hides various statistics from curious eyes, the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Tax Service skim off the excess fat from the middle class, the Russian Orthodox Church demands that unmarried and divorced men not be appointed to responsible positions in companies and organizations, Deputy Gurulev insists on introducing that very tax «on Uncle Vanya's eggs» — on childlessness. And there are no more eggs at affordable prices in stores because of this.
* Andrey Kolesnikov is considered a «foreign agent» by the Russian Ministry of Justice.