The Ministry of Economic Development has updated the macro forecast for the development of the Russian economy for the coming years. The forecast parameters were published this morning by "Kommersant" with reference to the ministry, but the article was soon deleted. The Bell* provided data from the deleted material.
The macro forecast of the Ministry of Economy, published in April, turned out to be too optimistic. Low oil prices, a strong ruble, and a slowing economy continued to reduce budget revenues. Compared to the April version, the estimates have become noticeably more "conservative": the economy is slowing down more than previously expected.
The main change is the reduction in GDP growth expectations: in 2025, the forecast was revised from 2.5% to 1%, and in 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%.
In addition, the investment forecast has been lowered: in 2026, instead of the previously expected growth of 3%, a decline of 0.5% is now laid down. The Ministry of Economy explains this by the "high base of recent years" and tight monetary policy.
The forecast for industrial production has been reduced from 2.6% to 1.5% in 2025, and from 2.9% to 2.3% in 2026.
Such forecast parameters mean that the state is preparing for "life at low speed": sluggish growth and low investments, sanctions, and continued restrictions.
* Recognized in Russia as a "foreign agent".