The Russian economy entered a stage of 'technical stagnation' in the second quarter, announced the head of Sberbank, German Gref, at a briefing within the framework of the Eastern Economic Forum. According to the head of 'Sber', for a revival to occur, a significant reduction in the key rate is needed — 12% and below, currently it is at 18%
'The cooling continues, we see this in the GDP growth rate. The second quarter can practically be considered as technical stagnation. July and August show quite clear symptoms that we are approaching zero marks,' stated Gref, noting that one of the important factors is the key rate. Sberbank expects that by the end of the current year the indicator will be at the level of 14%, however, for an 'economic revival' this is not enough — a level of 12% and below is necessary.
In June, the Bank of Russia reduced the key rate for the first time in three years from 21 to 20%, in July - to 18%. The regulator explained the decision by a faster-than-expected reduction in inflationary pressure, but noted that there is still a need for a prolonged period of tight monetary policy.
The base scenario of the Bank of Russia assumes that under conditions of gradual reduction in inflationary pressure, the average key rate in 2026 will be in the range of 12–13%, and in 2027 and 2028 it will also drop to 7.5–8.5%. At the time of the full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine, the rate was 7.5%.